Scorecard
How the predictions did against the results, and against two simple baselines. Every prediction here was frozen at tip-off.
Live record this season
7 games so far, so treat the numbers as early. Log-loss is the average penalty for the probability given to what happened: lower is better, and 0.693 is what a coin flip scores.
| Forecast | Games | Winners right | Log-loss | Brier | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7 | 5 of 7 (71%) | 0.597 | 0.206 | 9.8 pts |
| Home team always | 7 | 2 of 7 (29%) | 0.840 | 0.322 | 11.3 pts |
Margin error is the mean absolute gap between the predicted and the actual home margin. Home team always: 63% win probability and a 3.4 point margin, the average of the backtest seasons. No bookmaker lines yet.
By round
| Round | Games | Winners right | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 7 | 5 of 7 (71%) | 0.597 |
Calibration
When the model gives the favourite 70 to 80%, the favourite should win about 75% of the time. Dots on the dashed line mean the probabilities mean what they say.
Backtest (732 games)Live (7 games)Dashed line: calibrated
| Favourite's probability | Backtest games | Favourite won, backtest | Live games | Favourite won, live |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 244 | 54% | 4 | 75% |
| 60–70% | 223 | 56% | 2 | 50% |
| 70–80% | 176 | 75% | 0 | — |
| 80–90% | 82 | 88% | 1 | 100% |
| 90–100% | 7 | 100% | 0 | — |
Backtest
Held-out predictions for the two seasons before this one, made walk-forward: each round uses only earlier games, and each season is predicted with parameters tuned on the other.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Games | 732 |
| Winners right | 63.8% |
| Log-loss | 0.6197 |
| Brier score | 0.2162 |
| Mean absolute margin error | 9.1 points |
Biggest misses this season
| Round | Home | Result | Away | Favourite | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |  Baskonia | 79-93 |  Dubai | Baskonia | Baskonia 61% |
| 5 |  Valencia | 97-102 |  Olympiacos | Valencia | Valencia 53% |